AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis for June 17, 2016
Technical Analysis – The AUD/USD pair fell rather significantly during the course of the day on Thursday but found enough support down at the 0.73 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course has significance as it should be a positive sign, so we can break above the top of the range we might be able to reach towards the 0.75 handle. However, I don’t like the risk to reward ratio so I will simply sit on the sidelines at this point in time and wait for a better signal.
In other View Point – AUD/USD capped at 0.7400, 100-DMA resistance
Despite of Thursday’s sharp rebound from sub-0.7300 level, the AUD/USD pair remains well anchored below 100-day SMA strong resistance around 0.7400 handle.
On Thursday, the Aussie benefitted from a sudden turnaround in the risk sentiment surrounding ‘Brexit’ after both sides in the UK-EU referendum suspended campaigns one week before the crucial vote on June 23 after the Jo Cox tragedy. Earlier on Thursday, the AUD/USD pair extended its reversal from 100-day SMA and dropped below 0.7300 level despite of the Fed inaction on Wednesday and better-than-expected Australian employment numbers on Thursday.
On the last trading day of the week, the pair continued with its struggle to move back above 100-day SMA. However, a convincing break above this important resistance seems to open room for an immediate up-move for the pair.
Technical levels to watch
On the upside, 100-day SMA (0.7400 region) is followed by resistance near 0.7450, which if conquered now seems to assist the pair to surpass 0.7500 handle and head towards testing its next major resistance near 0.7580-85 area.
On the flip side, weakness back below 0.7300 handle seems to drag the pair towards retesting 200-day SMA important support near 0.7275-70 region. A follow through selling pressure below 200-day SMA would open room for a fresh leg of downfall for the pair towards retesting May daily closing lows support near 0.7185-80 region.
In other view point – FROM NOW ON UNTIL THE 23RD IS BREAK FROM TRADING
As you know maybe already I trade both technical and “fundamentals”. By fundamentals i understand, what the paid media is telling me coupled with logical bias. If I do not understand something I just stay aside. I picked this chart for no particular reason, due to the fact the you exhibit the same chart structure on the charts.
In the last two days we had classic risk off trade. Dollar, gold-0.80% and yen were bid. Then came the killing of the UK lawmaker Jo Cox and that according to Bloomberg (payed media) prompted relief rally under the assumption that her death will push the voters for Brestay, Where is the logic, I will leave it to you. So what does that tell me? Grab a nice beverage, close all position what the markets, take notes and have a nice time off the markets. Until the 23rd.
Today is Friday, nothing major from data point of view. I rarely trade on this day. I haven’t done comprehensive stats, but Friday is chop day unless we have some news around that day, NFP for example. My trading stats are showing me that I perform poorly on Friday and Monday.
So what to do with that pair. If you are bullish that pair then wait for retracement down to 0.73500 or wait for a break of the supply and again wait for retracement back to 0.74- If you are bearish play vice versa with the supply zones.