AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis for June 20, 2016
Forex Technical Analysis – The AUD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Friday, and as you can see the 0.74 level seems to be a bit of a magnet for price. With that being the case, I believe that the market breaking above the hammer from the Thursday session would be reason enough to go long, and as far as selling is concerned, I don’t have any real interest in doing so. Ultimately, there’s going to be a lot of volatility in this pair, as the Federal Reserve looks a bit shaky at the moment as far as interest-rate hikes are concerned, but at the same time the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently cut interest rates.
In Other view point – AUD/USD up on renewed optimism, go long on breakout above 0.7450
Risk-on trades persisting in the markets after the latest Brexit polls’ outcome swayed towards the Remain camp support AUD. Rallying copper and oil prices together with broad-based US dollar sell-off also collaborated to the upside in the pair. AUD/USD is extending upside after bullish gap-up open and is currently trading around 0.7449 levels. Momentum studies are bullish, RSI biased north, strength in RSI at 57 levels. Bollinger bands are widening and the pair has bounced of 20-DMA support on June 16th trade. Upside finds major trendline resistance at 0.7450 levels, break above will see test of 0.75 and then 0.7560 levels. On the downside, we see immediate support at 0.74 (10-DMA) ahead of 0.7393 (5-DMA). Break below could see test of 0.7360 levels. Immediate focus now on Tuesday’s RBA minutes release along with RBA official Debelle’s speech for fresh impetus on the Aussie.Good to go long on decisive breakout above 0.7450, SL: 0.74, TP: 0.75/0.7530/0.7560
In Other view – AUD/USD extends the breakout of 0.7400
The Aussie dollar is trading in line with the rest of the risk-associated assets, pushing AUD/USD further north of the 0.7400 barrier.
AUD/USD boosted by sentiment
The greenback remains on the defensive today following a renewed sentiment towards the riskier assets, all after the ‘Leave’ vote at the EU-UK Referendum (Thursday) has retaken the lead according to polls released over the weekend.
Spot is thus rebounding from last week’s troughs in the 0.7280 area, currently navigating multi-day peaks in the 0.7440/50 band.
Regarding positioning, speculative net shorts in AUD have been reduced by more than half during the week ended on June 14 from the previous week, according to the latest report by CFTC.
AUD/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is advancing 0.61% at 0.7440 and a break above 0.7508 (high Jun.9) would aim for 0.7597 (23.6% Fibo of the Jan-Apr up move) and finally 0.7836 (2016 high Apr.21). On the other hand, the next support aligns at 0.7410 (100-day sma) followed by 0.7338 (20-day sma) and then 0.7283 (low Jun.16).