AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis for June 23, 2016
Forex Technical Analysis – The AUD/USD pair rose during the course of the session on Wednesday, breaking out to a fresh, new high. However, we are still fighting more of a grind than anything else. Ultimately, this is the market to watch as it is avoiding both the European and British currencies, and could give us an idea of what the risk appetite will be around the world. Also, you have to keep in mind that gold is highly influential on what’s going on with the Australian dollar, so we could get a bit of a boost from the gold market showing bullish pressure.
In Other view Point – AUD/USD: Possibly in terminal wave of cyclical weakness – SocGen
Stéphanie Aymes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the phase of weakness in AUD/USD since 2011 does not appear to have much steam left as it could be in the process of completing a cycle low.
“Of note is that it has almost completed the typical 4-5 year correction which resembles that of the late 1990s.
Earlier this year, the pair achieved a key support near 0.6750/0.65, a projection for the down move and highs of 1999. Since then it has appeared to evolve within a stabilization stage highlighted by a double bottom formation. This also resembles the base formations in 2001 and 2008-2009 which led the way to sustainable recoveries. The monthly indicator is also testing a key graphical floor (as in 2000 and 2008) which confirms proximity to a significant trough.
Thus 0.6750/0.65 should be limiting levels for the downtrend in AUD/USD. Holding these levels, a gradual recovery can be expected and the pair is likely to head towards 0.7830 and perhaps even towards the multiyear channel at 0.8160.This will be confirmed if a larger uptrend takes shape.”
In Other View Point – RSI-EMA Strategy by Lollo22
I just came up with this great strategy and i’m currently backtesting it. I’m sharing it, maybe you’ll find it interesting! This strategy uses 2 custom indicator CM RSI-EMA (you can find it in the user library) 1 custom indicator CM Stochastic multi timeframe (you can find it in the user library) as reference i use Bollinger bands and pivot of course first RSI-EMA (the blue one) has settings RSI: 7 EMA:8 second RSI-EMA (the red one) has settings RSI: 20 EMA: 12 CM Stochastics has default values Strategy: entry if in RSI -EMA (blue) rsi crosses above the blue area and RSI-EMA(red) rsi cross above red area = BUY if in RSI -EMA (blue) rsi crosses below the blue area and RSI-EMA(red) rsi cross below red area = SELL exit when in BUY look only at RSI-EMA (red) and exit when the white area goes below (or touches) red area.
In the graph i’ve traced buy (green) and sell (red) dotted lines to show you how it works.
I use only 1D chart
CM Stochastics are used just as a confirmation of the RSI-EMA signal