USDCAD Forex Technical Analysis for June 14, 2016
Technical Analysis – The USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the Monday session, but turned back around to form a bit of a shooting star. Ultimately, the market looks as if it is going to try to grind lower but there will be a lot of volatility due to the oil markets moving around so rapidly. If we can break above the top of the shooting star, that would be a very bullish sign and we would then more than likely reach towards the 1.30 level. We could get a break down, and that could give me selling, but only for the short-term.
In other view point – Crude oil looking over the cliff – USD/CAD moving along
This has been my favorite scenario since my Sunday analysis. Crude Oil is showing THE textbook reversal pattern. It seems as if the trendline is the only thing still holding Crude up. At the same time, the USDCAD has already started to move higher after its reversal pattern. A break of the trendline on Crude could lead to a huge USDCAD rally.
In other view point – USD/CAD rises to 1.2850, focus on US retail sales and API report
Despite of the latest up-move, led by a corrective move in crude oil prices, the USD/CAD traders remain indecisive as the pair continues to seesaw between losses and gains for third consecutive day.
On the first trading day of the current trading week, the pair swung from session through level of 1.2750 to eventually reclaim 1.2800 handle. On Tuesday, the pair is trading absolutely flat, despite of softness in crude oil prices to $48.00 mark, as traders look forward to API’s weekly report on crude stockpiles.
Meanwhile, risk-off sentiment might continue to extend support for the US Dollar as investors brace to confront the release of US monthly retail sales data that could further provide some momentum play in the greenback.
Technical levels to watch
From current levels, 50-day SMA near 1.2865 region seems to act as immediate resistance, above which the pair seems to immediately dart towards 1.2900 handle ahead of the next major resistance near 1.2955-60 horizontal area.
On the downside, weakness back below 1.2800 round figure mark might continue to find immediate support near Monday’s low of 1.2750, which if broken seems to drag the pair back below 1.2700 handle, towards 1.2695-90 support area.